'Super El Niño' could be strongest in decades, UN warns

International

THE powerful new cycle of the natural weather pattern could begin within weeks, raising the risk of extreme weather globally.

This developing phenomenon is expected to strengthen throughout the rest of 2026, bringing the potential for severe weather disruptions across much of the globe amid ongoing human-caused global warming.

The United Nations' World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued the alert as forecasts indicate this cycle could become a rare, highly intense "super" El Niño, a report by BBC said.

El Niño typically forms when a clear switch in wind patterns allows warmer waters to spread across the tropical Pacific Ocean. Scientists monitoring a tell-tale region of the central Pacific have been watching conditions change rapidly, detecting a massive wave of unusually warm water climbing more than 6°C above average hundreds of meters below the surface.

"We're very confident that there's a big event coming. It may even be a record event," said Prof. Adam Scaife, head of monthly to decadal prediction at the UK Met Office, during an interview with the BBC.

Moreover, part of the reason why scientists expect such a strong reaction lies within this deep-sea heat. This heat acts as a precursor by eventually warming the surface waters and heating the air above to disrupt global systems.

Michelle L'Heureux, a physical scientist at the US science agency NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, pointed out that the current warmth of these deep-sea waters "rivals some of the strongest El Niño events we have seen."

In another video statement, UN Secretary-General António Guterres emphasized the severity of the situation: "El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world. Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed."

Historically, no two El Niño events are exactly the same, but a strong cycle triggers distinct regional disruptions. It frequently brings severe heat, droughts, and wildfires to South America, Southeast Asia, and Australia.

On the other hand, it can fuel heavier rainfall and flash flooding in the southern United States, weaken the Indian monsoon, dry out the Horn of Africa, and disrupt winter weather patterns in the UK. Past occurrences have caused crop failures and supply chain issues, resulting in spikes to food prices and hundreds of billions, or even trillions, of dollars in lost income globally.

Forecasters note that because El Niño typically peaks in strength around Christmas time, it is impossible to know for sure if it will be a record-breaker with months still to go. The ultimate wildcard remains unpredictable wind patterns. Additionally, climate scientists emphasize that even if this climate pattern falls short of "super" status, the consequences could still be extreme because the world has never experienced an El Niño on a planet already this hot.

Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist with the US-based Berkeley Earth group, said the combined factors mean that 2027 is now highly likely to become the warmest year on record. He noted that in 1998, the world experienced an incredibly strong El Niño and an incredibly hot year for its time, but if those exact same temperatures happened today, it would actually be considered an incredibly cold year compared to the last two decades.

"It just goes to show how big an impact humans are having on the climate," he added.(Hanna Jane Cabasag, CNU COMM Intern)