8 storms could hit PH before year ends

Local

MORE storms are brewing, and the Visayas is right in their path.

The state weather bureau warned that up to eight more tropical cyclones could enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) before 2025 ends, with a 60 to 70 percent chance that some will make landfall in the Visayas during the last stretch of the year.

Engineer Al Quiblat, chief of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa)–Mactan, said during a recent media forum that the region remains “vulnerable” to storms forming close to the country, especially as a weak La Niña looms, expected to affect weather patterns through early next year.

Quiblat said that based on Pagasa’s latest forecast released on September 24, about five to eight tropical cyclones may form or enter PAR before the end of the year.

“For October, we are expecting two to four tropical cyclones,” he said. “Based on tropical cyclone models, between the first and second week of October, there’s a possibility of two low-pressure areas (LPAs) entering PAR. But for now, the likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing remains low.”

Still, he cautioned against complacency.

“Dili ta kompyansa (we should not be complacent),” Quiblat warned. “Our ocean, particularly near the Philippines, is active and dynamic because of the looming 71 percent chance of La Niña. So, it is possible that this will change, depending on the intensity of the LPAs.”

He added that two to three cyclones are expected in November and one to two more in December, bringing the total to as many as eight.

According to Quiblat, storms forming late in the year tend to head toward the Visayas.

“Take note that during the ber months, particularly November to December, the chance of bagyo moving toward the Visayas is 60 to 70 percent,” he said. “Based on our historical data, these bagyo mostly make landfall.”

This trend, he explained, is influenced by the northeast monsoon (amihan), which pushes cyclones toward the central Philippines during the last quarter of the year.

Pagasa raised a La Niña Alert on September 15, indicating a 71 percent probability that the phenomenon will develop between October and December and persist into early 2026.

“With this, we expect above-normal rainfall conditions during the ber months,” Quiblat said. “Even though this La Niña is expected to be weak and short-lived, it can still bring more rains and flooding.”

He explained that La Niña occurs when warmer sea surface temperatures near the Philippines boost the likelihood of storm formation closer to land, increasing the risk of direct landfall.

While forecasters don’t expect this year’s cyclones to be as intense as those in 2024, Quiblat emphasized that even weaker storms can still bring flooding, landslides, and power outages, particularly when combined with persistent La Niña rains.

“We always remind the public to stay updated with Pagasa advisories,” he said. “The weather is changing fast, and preparedness remains our best defense.”

Pagasa also urged residents in low-lying and coastal areas to prepare for possible flooding and reminded local disaster offices to stay on alert for updated weather bulletins.

The warning follows Pagasa’s earlier declaration marking the end of the southwest monsoon (habagat) and the gradual onset of the northeast monsoon (amihan) this week.

The transition brings cooler air but also signals the time when tropical cyclones frequently move toward the Visayas and Mindanao, often coinciding with the height of the “ber” months.(TGP)