Diesel to rise sharply, gasoline to go down next week

Local

MOVING in opposite directions next week, diesel prices are expected to climb sharply while gasoline may see a rollback, as global oil markets react to tightening supply conditions and ongoing uncertainty over United States–Iran talks.

Industry projections indicate diesel may increase by around ₱4.00 to ₱4.50 per liter on June 9, based on recent movements in the Mean of Platts Singapore benchmark during a shortened trading week.

Gasoline, meanwhile, is expected to decline by about ₱1.00 to ₱1.50 per liter. The forecast remains subject to change as one trading session has yet to be included in final computations, with the pricing reference based on a three-day average following a public holiday in Singapore.

Global oil markets posted gains this week as crude and refined products strengthened on concerns that stalled United States–Iran negotiations could prolong supply disruptions. Diesel, in particular, has remained sensitive to tightening inventory conditions.

According to a Philstar report, an industry source said sentiment has been supported by shrinking stockpiles, noting, “Concerns that global oil inventories could hit critical levels if stock draws continue at the current pace further contributed to the bullish sentiment.” The same supply conditions have continued to reinforce upward pressure on diesel benchmarks.

Despite the expected diesel increase, recent domestic adjustments have provided temporary relief to consumers. These included a ₱4.76 per liter rollback in gasoline and a ₱9.26 per liter reduction in diesel, which helped ease pump prices closer to levels seen before earlier global disruptions. Latest industry data show diesel in Metro Manila ranging from ₱67.14 to ₱85.32 per liter, while gasoline is priced between ₱67.64 and ₱104.74 per liter.

Energy officials continue to warn that global supply could tighten further in the coming months if diplomatic efforts remain stalled.

The Department of Energy said conditions may worsen if a peace deal between the United States and Iran is not reached before end-July, based on assessments relayed by S&P Global during discussions with energy authorities.

Oil Industry Management Bureau chief Rino Abad said inventories have already been drawn down in recent months, with pressure expected to persist in the near term.

“Reserves have been used for March, April and May. For June, there’s going to be tightness already,” he said in the same report, adding that supply conditions are already showing signs of strain.

He also said that if negotiations succeed within the next two months, shipping routes could normalize and allow delayed cargoes to move again, helping stabilize global supply while affected facilities are restored.

The International Energy Agency has similarly warned that key maritime routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, must remain open to avoid deeper supply strain during peak seasonal demand expected in July or August.(MyTVCebu)