Ex-Pagasa director: ‘What happened during Odette could happen again’

Local

By MyTVCebu Desk

‘HISTORY could repeat itself.’

A former top weather official has indicated that Typhoon Tino could rapidly intensify before landfall, similar to what happened during Super Typhoon Odette in 2021, as the storm continues to move closer to the Visayas on Monday, Nov. 3.

Retired Pagasa Visayas director Oscar Tabada said the current atmospheric and sea conditions are “highly favorable” for intensification, warning residents and authorities not to let their guard down even if Tino is still classified below super typhoon status.

“Regardless of whether it becomes a super typhoon or not, we should not be complacent,” Tabada said in Cebuano during an interview on Baruganan ni Leo Lastimosa on Monday.

“I’m worried because what happened during Odette could happen again. The conditions right now are favorable, especially with the northeasterly wind and the warm sea temperature.”

He explained that Odette was originally forecast to make landfall with maximum sustained winds of 170 kilometers per hour, but rapidly strengthened to around 280 kph just before hitting Cebu.

“Odette’s rapid intensification caught many by surprise. It started strong in Olango, then made landfall in Carcar. I hope that doesn’t happen again,” he said.

Tabada said the hours ahead are critical as Tino continues to gather strength and moisture over the sea.

“This afternoon, we expect heavy rainfall, about 104 millimeters, equivalent to 520,000 barrels of water. By tomorrow, that could rise to 116.7 millimeters or around 583,500 barrels,” he said. “By the end of the day and tomorrow, we will have more than a million barrels of rainwater.”

He added that rainfall is forecast to begin around 10 p.m. Monday, intensifying through the night. Based on his analysis, wind speeds in Cebu City could reach 40 to 70 kph by early Tuesday, while northern Cebu may experience stronger gusts exceeding 100 kph.

“The strongest winds will come between 4 a.m. and 12 noon tomorrow,” Tabada said. “We’ll likely experience around eight hours of strong winds and rain. The only good thing is that it will happen in daylight; if it occurred at night, it would be more dangerous.”

Tabada cautioned that while the storm is still some distance from the Visayas, its trajectory remains fluid.

“As of now, the highest probability of landfall is in Guiuan, Eastern Samar—either late tonight or early tomorrow morning,” he said. “But storms can accelerate and shift direction once they hit land. Based on my analysis, it could even move slightly lower, possibly near Carmen or Compostela in Cebu, though that’s not final.”

He stressed that such changes often occur due to terrain deflection once a storm interacts with landmass.

The retired weather official said Typhoon Tino’s rain field covers almost the entire Visayas and parts of Mindanao and Luzon, describing it as “very wide.”

“This storm’s rain area could reach as wide as 1,000 kilometers,” he said. “The entire Visayas will experience rain, not just the center or the northern part.”

Tabada noted that rainfall may be slightly lighter in northern Cebu compared to Metro Cebu, but still enough to trigger flooding and landslides in vulnerable areas.

“The rain will not stop tonight. It will continue until tomorrow night, November 4, and ease only by November 5,” he said.

Cebu City remains under Red Alert Status after the Cebu City Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (CCDRRMC) raised its emergency readiness on Sunday, November 2, due to the imminent threat of Typhoon Tino.

Mayor Nestor Archival earlier said all disaster response teams, rescue units, and utility agencies, including VECO, MCWD, and the Coast Guard, are on full standby.

Preemptive evacuations have been ordered in 33 upland barangays and 10 to 15 coastal communities, while classes in all levels are suspended from November 3 to 5.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) has also warned that Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 4 could be raised over parts of Cebu within the day, as Tino continues to intensify while moving westward.(TGP)