Why are pork prices falling? DA points to ASF fears

National

PORK prices are falling not because imported meat is flooding the market, but because hog raisers are rushing their animals to market before African swine fever (ASF) can reach their farms, the Department of Agriculture (DA) said on Monday, Sept. 7.

Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. said hog raisers have been selling earlier than planned as the rainy season approaches, increasing pork supply in the market. He described the practice as a “fastbreak,” with producers seeking to sell their animals before they are affected by ASF or an outbreak occurs in a neighboring area.

“Rather than risk getting hit by ASF, or having an outbreak occur next door, they want to sell everything before they are affected,” Tiu Laurel said in a Philstar report.

The early selling has contributed to higher domestic pork production. Citing Philippine Statistics Authority data, Tiu Laurel said second-quarter output rose by 5.6 percent to 412,280 metric tons.

Despite the increase in production, average farmgate prices fell by nearly 19 percent to P172.44 per kilo from P211.91 a year earlier.

Tiu Laurel also pointed to Mindanao, where hog prices declined despite little imported pork entering the region, challenging the view that imports were behind the price drop.

The Bureau of Animal Industry (BAI) expects pork imports in 2026 to decline by around 50,000 metric tons from last year’s 851,760 metric tons. The reduction is expected to result from higher local production and the volume imported by food processors in 2025.

Tiu Laurel recalled that last year’s ASF outbreak contributed to higher pork prices, with pork belly increasing from P450 to P490 per kilo and shoulder reaching around P400 per kilo.

He said hog raisers could expand production once the BAI approves the commercial rollout of an ASF vaccine. Greater local production would help stabilize domestic supply and reduce the need for imports, according to Tiu Laurel.

He also cautioned that while higher prices encourage producers to increase output, fears over disease can lead them to liquidate their animals quickly, resulting in abrupt changes in pork supply and prices.

The latest decline offers relief to consumers, but Tiu Laurel said hog raisers still need greater protection against ASF to support expansion, maintain a stable domestic pork supply and reduce reliance on imports.(MyTVCebu)